This offense goes as Maurice Jones-Drew goes. The “Bowling Ball” is one of the most dangerous backs in the league and can change the complexion of the game with one play.
Jones-Drew stands only 5-7 but weighs 208 lbs of solid muscle. He might be the strongest player pound-for-pound in the NFL. The guy squats 600 lbs, which is unbelievable for a man of his stature.
He has very strong legs and hips, which allow him to power through tackles. He also uses his small size to his advantage by hiding behind his blockers, which makes it difficult for defenders to locate him.
The Jags prefer to run him between the tackles so he can get lost in traffic but he is less effective on the perimeter. Expect Rex Ryan to bring more run blitzes up the middle to clog up his running lanes.
The Jets will have to be disciplined against him. They must gang tackle and get him to the ground with force. This guy runs through arm tackles with ease.
The Jags go with a fairly conservative game plan, relying on Jones-Drew and the running game to move the sticks. But their offense has not been unable to sustain drives and is among the league leaders in “three and outs”.
Much of their difficulty is due to the play of their quarterback David Garrard who is very athletic but struggles with his accuracy and decision-making. Garrard’s completion percentage is 60% but he has feasted on some weak defenses to inflate his numbers.
Garrard is dangerous when he gets outside pocket because he runs well in the open field so the Jets will have to keep him hemmed in when he fades back. Garrard is second among quarterbacks in rushing yardage.
His top target is Mike Sims-Walker who, in his third year out of Central Florida, has become the go-to receiver the Jaguars have lacked since Jimmy Smith. He is fast and physical and likes to use his body to fend off defenders.
At 6-2, 214 he looks a lot like Anquan Boldin and has a similar game. He runs well after the catch and is averaging an impressive 15 yards per catch.
With the Jets expected to play a lot of eight man fronts, Sims-Walker will see a lot of man coverage. He will no doubt be locked up with Darrelle Revis in most passing situations and this match up will be one of the keys in this game.
This will be an interesting match up for Revis who has played well against bigger, physical receivers like Terrell Owens and Andre Johnson. If Revis can hold down Sims-Walker the Jaguars do not have a lot of other options.
Torry Holt mans the other WR spot but he is not what he used to be. Injuries have slowed him down considerably and he is no longer a home run threat. He has no touchdowns and averages only four catches per game.
The more intriguing player is rookie Mike Wallace who has good quickness for a slot receiver but may not be the answer long term. He will line up when the Jags go to three receiver sets but he has not been much of a playmaker.
Jacksonville’s offensive line is merely average. Guard Vince Manuwai is their best run blocker and they like to run Jones-Drew behind him and center Brad Meester.
They are starting two rookies at tackle, Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton, and while they may develop into good pros they can be fooled confusing fronts. Expect the Jets to bring plenty of stunts and blitzes to confuse the youngsters.
The Jaguars have struggled in the red zone, which is another reflection on their quarterback. Garrard’s inability to convert opportunities near the goal line plays to the Jets’ strength. They are fourth in the league in points allowed (16.8 per game) and are particularly stingy in the red zone.
Keys
• Stop Maurice Jones-Drew. The Jets must gang tackle him and be disciplined with their tackling technique.
• Keep David Garrard in the pocket. He can break off big runs when the pocket breaks down.
• Limit Mike Sims-Walker. Revis will draw him in man coverage most of the afternoon and must match his physicality to keep him under wraps.