The Jets’ blitz harassed him all day as he tried to work his way back into form after a serious knee injury. But the Jets will not be as lucky this time. Brady is hitting his stride as the football season enters its most critical juncture.
With Brady at the helm, the Patriots offense is surgical in its precision. He has excellent rapport with his receivers, particularly Randy Moss and the two frequently have “check with me” visual cues at the line where they signal one another to change routes based on the coverage.
This sort of communication makes them extremely hard to defend.
Darrelle Revis totally shut down Moss in the first meeting and held him to four catches for 24 yards. It was that performance, and the one he turned in against Andre Johnson, that has landed Revis on the radar of many Pro Bowl voters.
If he can match that effort this week, he will hamstring the Patriots’ big-play threat.
As usual the Patriots rank near the top of the league in total offense. They are second behind only the Saints.
Their rushing attack is ranked 15th, in part because they are a pass-first attack but primarily because their running game is not very good.
Laurence Maroney has been somewhat of a disappointment. Injuries and uneven play have fueled speculation that he is not in the team’s long-term plans.
He lost his starting job to Sammy Morris earlier in the season and received more playing time only when Morris wend down with an injury. Expect Maroney to get 10-15 carries to keep the defense honest.
His 4.0-yard average matches the league average but he can be inconsistent as his play last week demonstrated. He had scored touchdowns in four straight games but fumbled the ball on Indy’s goal line last week to give away an easy seven points.
Belichick likes to spread defenses out and hit them with a short, rhythm passing game. He likes to throw bubble screens to Wes Welker in order to get him out in space behind a couple of blockers.
Brady and his linemen sell the run extremely well which forces defenders to honor the play action and this opens up lanes on the outside. Once the pass defense commits more attention to the outside, Brady likes to hit Ben Watson down the seam or Randy Moss on the post.
Brady’s impeccable accuracy makes him hard to defend. He can complete passes in tight coverage, even on plays down the field.
He will no doubt pick on whoever lines up at the other corner spot opposite Revis. Whether it is Lowery or Sheppard, neither has shown the consistency to match up against the likes of a Wes Welker.
This will be a big advantage for the Patriots.
The best chance the Jets’ defense has against this offense is to pressure Tom Brady. He does not like to move around and does not throw particularly well on the run.
The Jets hit him 7 times last game and rushed many of his throws. They did not sack him but their pressure clearly got to him.
I do not expect the Jets to be as successful this game. Their pass rush has been inconsistent at best lately and New England’s line will be ready for their blitz packages.
If the Jets blitz a lot, Belichick will switch it up and run more screens. He will also have Brady take shorter drops so his passes come out quicker.
As I had predicted before their first match up, the Jets were lucky to get the Patriots early. Brady was still getting acclimated and the team was working in some younger players, particularly on defense.
I figured by the time this match up rolled around they would be a far different team and that is exactly what has happened. You don’t have to be a genius to figure out Belichick will get his team going in the right direction. He does it every year.
The only way the Jets can win this Sunday is if they limit their mistakes and play with significantly more intensity than they have shown the past month. This will be a telling game for David Harris and Bart Scott.
Both players were terrible last week and combined for 9 missed tackles in the first half alone. They misdiagnosed plays and wound up filling the wrong holes, which made life easy for Maurice Jones-Drew who broke their arm tackles with ease.
These two owe one to Jets Nation. They are supposed to be the tempo setters for this defense and help pick up the slack while Jenkins is out.
If they do not come out and play more physically against New England, we might have to adjust our perception of this duo. Are they standout players in their own right or do they need the big fella in the middle in order to thrive?
This will also be a big game for Shaun Ellis and Calvin Pace. These two are also defensive leaders who must step up in big games in order for the Jets to win.
Ellis seems to play his best football against New England so I expect a big game from him. Pace had a monster game against Oakland but does have a tendency to disappear for long stretches, just like Ellis.
If this defense is ever going to be one of the best in the league, players like Ellis, Pace, Scott and Harris will have to show a heck of a lot more consistency than they have shown thus far.
Right now only one guy, Darrelle Revis, shows up game in and game out and makes plays. Jimmy Leonhard gets honorable mention.
That is just not good enough considering all the talent on this unit.
New England has had to shuffle its offensive line after LT Matt Light went down with an injury. Nick Kaczur moves over from RT and rookie Sebastian Vollmer will fill Kaczur’s spot.
Vollmer would be the obvious player to pick on due to his inexperience but the entire group plays extremely well as a unit even when it must integrate a new guy. The Jets’ pass rush has had limited success lately and I do not believe they will be able to repeat their success from week two.
The Jets’ blitz is predicated on confusion and they have not confused many offensive lines lately.
Keys
• Revis must lock down Randy Moss. The Pats’ playmaker is so dangerous that if he is neutralized, their passing game becomes more predictable without its downfield threat.
• The Jets’ defense must be the aggressor. This defense thrives when it has a swagger and it derives its attitude from the two guys in the middle – David Harris with his striking ability and Bart Scott with his intimidating presence.
• Get to Tom Brady. Consistent pressure forced him into errant throws last time and repeating that pattern will force him to move around which is something he does not like to do.
• Shaun Ellis and Calvin Pace will have to bring pressure and make more plays. This Patriots’ offense will dominate the Jets if they do not get big games from their defensive leaders.