Their inability to tackle Jones-Drew was their undoing and a similar effort against Williams will yield a similar result. Williams is a very dangerous back and will beat you with his change of direction, lateral quickness and acceleration.
The Jets had better tackle well in this game or it will be a long afternoon.
Jonathan Stewart is just as good a runner as Williams but employs a different style. He is a north-south runner who hits the hole with authority, runs well behind his pads and gains significant yardage after contact.
Rex Ryan and Mike Pettine would be wise to use more 4-3 fronts against the Panthers. Their talented running backs and dominant offensive line make them a tough match up for the Jets’ 3-4, which has been inconsistent since Jenkins went down.
Carolina has a stud at right tackle in Jeff Otah who is only in his second year. At 6-6, 330 he is a monster in the run game.
Once Otah gets his hands on his opponent it’s all over. He needs more technique work, especially as a pass blocker however so he could be had by a veteran like Shaun Ellis but this will be a tough game for Ellis to shine if he consistently lines up over Otah.
Ellis had a great game last week (8 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 tackle for loss and 1 hit on the QB), as he normally does against New England, but he will have to move around on Sunday if he is to have a chance at making some plays.
All Pro LT Jordan Gross is out with a broken leg so one would think Ellis would have a big mismatch over his replacement but Travelle Wharton could start for a lot of teams. He is not as athletic as Gross but uses solid technique and can hold his own versus Ellis in the run game.
In pass protection Wharton will struggle against quicker athletes. If the Jets can get Calvin Pace matched up on him he should be able to get some pressure on Jake Delhomme.
With Wharton shifting to LT from his usual LG spot, the Panthers are inserting second year man Mackenzy Bernadeau to pick up the slack. Bernadeau is very green and will have to show he can handle the more confusing aspects of the position before the Jets respect him.
Expect the Jets to bring several twists and stunts to test the young guy. They will also challenge him with blitzes up the gut from their inside linebackers.
This will be a big game for Bart Scott and David Harris. They both started slow against New England but responded in the second half with a lot of intensity that not only charged up the rest of the defense but also sent some Patriots limping to the sideline.
The Panthers are a physical group so the Jets will have to match their intensity to come away with a win. Scott and Harris are responsible for setting an aggressive tone and must stop the team’s recent trend of coming out flat to start games.
Both linebackers will have to be crisp with the timing of their blitzes in order to properly set up the inexperienced Bernadeau. With pressure up the middle, Delhomme will have difficulty with his drops, which should disrupt his timing with WR Steve Smith.
Jake Delhomme’s passer rating (66) is well below his career average (83) in part because of a limited corps of receivers. After Steve Smith he has few options.
Muhsin Muhammad has been a good possession receiver throughout his career and his strength is in his route running. He sets up defenders well and is solid in the short and intermediate zones.
Muhammad keeps the sticks moving and Delhomme will look his way on third downs as a result. With Dwight Lowery and Donald Strickland banged up, Lito Sheppard might get the start and might fare better in this match up than usual.
Sheppard has had problems with speed but may be able to stay with Muhammad but I am not willing to concede an advantage to Sheppard by any stretch. He has been one of the most disappointing players on the Jets’ roster and is hands down the worst offseason pick up this year.
Opposite Muhammad is All Pro Steve Smith who started out slow this season but has really come on in recent weeks. He remains one of the best receivers in the league and Darrelle Revis will have his hands full yet again trying to defend the speedy receiver.
Revis has already shown he can handle the bigger, more physical receivers but this week he will have to contend with a guy who gets off the line of scrimmage better than anyone else in the league.
Smith has exceptional speed and quickness. He gets into his routes quickly and separates in a flash out of his breaks. He has the speed to stretch the field vertically and will warrant help over the top on every pass play.
If Revis shows he can hold Smith down without much help it will be a huge advantage for the Jets. They will be able to devote a safety to the run more consistently and will force Carolina into a more predictable offensive attack.
Carolina will have to run the ball more and settle for a short-intermediate passing game, which will make it much harder for them to get first downs.
Making Jake Delhomme throw the football is one of the keys in this game and containing their running game will achieve that.
One reason Delhomme has been such a good fit in Carolina is he uses the play-action passing game to his advantage. He hides the ball well on play fakes and pulls linebackers toward the line of scrimmage, which in turn opens, up the middle of the field.
He is a very smart QB who reads coverages well and makes quick decisions. He used to be extremely accurate but has really struggled in this area since his shoulder injury in 2007.
As a result, he is missing receivers, which should give the Jets’ secondary some opportunities for turnovers. It will be hard to get pressure on him because he has a good offensive line so taking away his first and second reads will be paramount.
With two key defensive backs out, the Jets might lose this numbers game and be exposed in their secondary despite Carolina being a poor passing team.
In addition to stopping the Panthers’ formidable running game, the Jets must use a confusing blitz scheme on third down to confuse Carolina’s left side.
The Jets need to challenge Bernadeau and Wharton who likely do not have enough playing time together to communicate effectively on stunts and overloads.
Stopping Carolina’s offense will come down to containing their running game. DeAngelo Williams is fourth in the NFL in rushing and has an impressive 5.4-yard average.
Containing him and Jonathan Stewart will be a tough task. Rex Ryan said before the season that his team would win with defense. Well, Carolina will be the perfect opportunity to prove him right.
The Jets need a win in a big way and stopping one of the best running games in football will go a long way toward restoring the team’s confidence and credibility.
Keys
• Use more 4-3 fronts to clog running lanes.
• Move Ellis around so he does not have to face Jeff Otah consistently.
• Confuse inexperienced left guard Mackenzy Bernadeau with blitzes and stunts.
• Harris and Scott must establish a physical tone in order to contain the Panthers’ running game.
• Revis must shut down Steve Smith to make Carolina’s offense one-dimensional.